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Showing Our Blue Collars

The major sports story of the year is being reported, speculated and discussed ad nauseam, and frankly, providing commentary on the issue would only be adding to the already incessant noise. Truth be told, there is little we can add to the discussion so we'll stick with the task at hand: Week 14 of the NFL season, specifically the game of the week... and, no, it's not Belichick vs. Mangini.

We're talking about Bills/Browns -- the winner of which could potentially secure the final AFC wildcard spot. Looking at our numbers, which put more weight into both converting and defending third-downs, the Browns offense is slightly above average in moving the chains on third down and off the charts in the defending against them. Now, with a rare exception of a Lee Evans jump-ball, Buffalo doesn't exactly open up the play book Belichick-style. No one can deny that Trent Edwards is the reason for the Bills' improved offense, but they are still hovering around the league average in third down conversions. This is OK, considering they were flat-out awful in the first half of the season. It's a different story as far as the defense is concerned. Before last week's win against the mail-it-in Dolphins, Buffalo had given up first downs quite frequently -- 50%, 53%, 91%, 56% and 47%.

The short of it is: Cleveland's offense, which most believe to be the reason for the Browns run of late, is doing all right. The defensive has been great. Our numbers seem to indicate that the Browns have a good chance of coming out on top, but nothing is certain. Just following where the data leads us.

Checking in with SportsInsights, the betting public likes the Browns too, but it certainly isn't a one-sided affair. Cleveland has the majority amount of bets, tipping the scales 56/44 and raising the price from the opening of 5.5 to its current price of 6.

However, whatever the outcome, who would've had the Bills and Browns competing in anything other than 2008 draft positioning? Yet another example of the gap that exists between expectations and actual, on-the-field performance.

Lou

 

Pack it Down

On the surface, this year's Thanksgiving day games appear to be the usual, mildly entertaining affairs that typically monopolize our post-turkey time.   

Since Barry left the game nearly ten years ago (!), Detroit's annual turkey game has diminished to mere  background noise for a late-afternoon nap, even with seasoned field generals like Scott Mitchell, Ray Lucas and Mike McMahon leading the charge. But this year could be different. In fact, Vegas priced Detroit and Green Bay (-3.5) as a potentially competitive match-up while DAL/NYJ (+14) and IND/ATL (+11) are perceived as clear mismatches.

But before we go all weatherman on you, we'll reference the point spread market and our own data.

Currently, some 23,000 bets are in with Green Bay tilting the bet distribution balance 76/24, but the price is sticking at -3.5. Here's what we're thinking: After 10 games, it's clear that the Pack and old man Favre are a legit contender in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Lions, as hinted above, have shown significant improvement from last year. There's your 11 weeks in a nutshell.

Perhaps Detroit's slight '07 success makes them a logical candidate for the underdog bet. This despite two straight losses and the fact that, to reiterate, they're playing the 9-1 Packers. Of course we wouldn't be bringing this up if there wasn't something else, and there is.

If you'll remember from last week, we introduced some findings from our data system, which is heavy on third-down conversion rates -- the battles within the greater war. We saw the Dolphins as a possible long-shot bet against the Eagles, but as Miami is prone to do, they tanked. Hey, we didn't say we could tell the future, but the numbers showed an 0-9 Dolphin team playing above league averages on both sides of the ball . Accept it.

Detroit may be an attractive bet to the contrarian, but they may not the undervalued powerhouse some experts predicted. Offensively, the Lions have struggled to convert third downs as of late. All the while, the defense, the often overlooked squad, has played marginally well in terms of preventing opposing offenses from moving the chains. This begs the question: Could the Lion defense -- and not the explosive Mike Martz offense -- be the reason for the Motor City's win total? We would be inclined to say yes. Now, considering the Packers are well above the league average in both converting third downs and defending against them, we can only assume that Green Bay has a definite advantage over Detroit. Suddenly, that -3.5 price appears like a generous discount. Then again, we have no idea how much praying Kitna's been doing, so, if you're the spiritual type, keep that in mind.

Cheers to a day spent with family and friends. Enjoy.

Lou

Is Miami Money?

You may be thinking: Oh, great. Another post on the Dolphins. Hold up. We're just throwing a different spin on our usual Friday feature. Seeing as though Vegas priced exactly three games in the 10-point favorite range, we combed through our data to find some hidden insight and perhaps find some long-shot candidates. The games in question include Pittsburgh at New York Jets (+10), Miami at Philadelphia (-10) and Carolina at Green Bay (-10). The lazy forecaster (pointing to myself) would simply stack win/loss records against another, maybe reference level of play spanning the past few weeks and, to the surprise of no one, pick the favorite. Admittedly, I do this all too often. We all do. That's why I was little shocked when the filter's Swami equivalent boldly announced to me that he liked Miami's chances this week against the Eagles. The 0-9 Dolphins. Zero. Wins.

His reasoning was simple: Third-down conversions, the "battles within the greater war." We all know that oftentimes games are decided by one or two possessions. Likewise, converting on third down usually improves a team's chance to walk out a winner. Just reference San Fran's performance last Monday night -- 1/12 on third downs, moved the chains just six times, zero points, a loss.

Lest we forget the defensive side of the ball. Spanning the past few weeks, the Phins have shown a steady improvement in not only converting third downs on offense but also stepping up on defense and forcing punts. This against the Pats, Giants and Bills, no less. Add to the mix the fact that Miami, amidst all the losses, have typically kept games close, only to run out of gas in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, they've fared well against the spread.

Even with all the losses within three points (5) and the alleged improvement, my inner optimist is no match for the cynic. The numbers, however, don't lie. Sure enough, the Phins are on the up even as they remain winless. Defense, among many, many other areas, has been the major problem with Miami, but consider their improvement from week 3 up until last week:

Miami's Third-Down Conversion %
Game	Offense Success	Opponent Success
1. @ WAS	50%	31%
2. DAL	50%	36%
3. @ NYJ	33%	62%
4. OAK	27%	60%
5. @ HOU	45%	50%
6. @ CLE	50%	67%
7. NE	53%	43%
8. NYG	46%	36%
9. BUF	53%	30%

That's what makes Miami's price of +10 an interesting candidate for the long-shot bet. But let's keep this in perspective. The winless Dolphins pulling off the near-impossible, on the road, with a rookie quarterback at the helm is, by all definitions, a long-shot. Also, keep in mind that since 2006 10-point underdogs are 4-11 (27%) in winning straight up. Not exactly easy money. That's for you to decide.

What, no prediction? Nope, just the numbers as we see them. Philly's expensive price and Miami's quiet improvement offers an opportunity to profit while the majority looks the other way. These are the moments which the opportunisitc speculators seek. As we've read so frequently, it's usually the contrarians -- those who greet conventional wisdom with apprehension -- who make the best speculators. With that said, which team would you invest in?

Emmitt Smith's First Crack as NFL Analyst

Cameron's Growing Pains

The 2007 season hasn't been kind to the Miami Dolphins and rookie coach Cam Cameron. No wins through eight games doesn't exactly make nice with the fans, and the grumbling has begun. The incessant noise coming from Phinville is calling for Cam's job, which, at this point, should be expected. However, even during this nightmare of a first year, which didn't exactly start off strong with the "Ginn over Quinn" pick, letting Cam go after this season isn't likely.

As a tortured fan myself, I peruse the Florida papers frequently and admittedly spend far too much time reading fodder from other fans. In the "Comments" section, you'll see a great arena for perceptions and expectations and, inadvertently, a laboratory bent on the desecration of the English language.

How, exactly, do fans form their opinions? Are they based on actual figures, a reporter's commentary, or simply accepting the voice of the majority? With the Dolphins, it's likely neither of the above, but rather the tell-all ugliness of 0-8.

So, with hopes of quieting some of the disgruntled Cameron opponents, I jumped into the data to see  how coaches performed in their first seasons. Sure, the optimist could reference the great teams of the past 30 years, the legends who coached them and their efforts in their rookie years: Noll and the Steel Curtain of the '70s, 1-13; Walsh and the Niners of the '80s, 2-14; JJ and the 'Boys of the '90s, 1-15, and to a lesser extent, Belichick's Patriots, 5-11 in their first go-around. But let's hold off on chiseling Cam's mug into the Mount Rushmore of NFL coaches.

For each team, I took the last three coaching regimes, tallied their first-year records and filtered them in groups according to number of wins. However, I didn't include this year's seven rookie coaches because the season's still young, and, like in the case of Wade Phillips and the Cowboys, seven wins in the context of a half season isn't exactly a mediocre performance.

Take note that some expansion teams, specifically Baltimore, Houston and Jacksonville, have had just two coaches since inception.

First-Year Coaches and Wins
Wins	# of Coaches	% of Outcome
0-2	5	6%
3-5	17	20%
6-8	33	38%
9-11	28	33%
12+	2	2%

Unfortunately for me, my research gives me little ammunition against Cam haters. Fact is, Cam is headed toward an unchartered and unprecedented level of suck. Finishing out the year with two wins sounds swell, but even then Cam would be in exclusively bad company. Like, 6 percent. Sure, he wasn't given much, and truth is that IS the reason why the Phins are struggling. But rarely, if ever, does blame fall on the players.

With that said, there are still eight games left for Cameron to hop onto the beaten path of rookie coaches from history's past. Otherwise, he and Art Shell version 2006 can spend next season poolside, sippin' Schlitz and soaking up the California sunshine. Burn that image into your mind.

Lou

Bettin' on Big Ben

This was one of the games that you flip off after the first half and head to bed early, knowing full well what the outcome will be in the morning. Pittsburgh completely handled the Ravens last night and covered the spread by a mile. Here's how the tilt worked its way out:

Total Bets: 114,724
Match-up	Friday %	Final %	Opening	Friday	Final
BAL: 7	52%	45%	+7.5	+9.5	+9.5
PIT: 38	48%	55%	-7.5	-9.5	-9.5

Steeler gamblers were betting bigger in this one, and it showed in the form of a two-point adjustment over the weekend. The only question is: Where was the Pats-like pile-on in the second half? C'mon, Steelers, send a message.

Hindsight Monday: Future Headaches Edition

It didn't have the outcome that we were hoping for but the Colts/Pats lived up to its hype, at least in terms of a  competitive and entertaining late game. With what was slated as the greatest regular season match-up in NFL history behind us, it's time to move forward and anticipate (and speculate) on the latter half of this NFL season. In regards to New England, going into Part II of the season, it looks as if the Giants, Steelers and possibly the Bills or Ravens are the only formidable opponents to stand in the way of Patriot perfection.

But enough about the Pats. How about Adrian Peterson's freakish performance yesterday?! This guy needs a dailyfilter post immediately.

To the task at hand -- There were no major shake-ups in our point spread tilts from Friday. In every one of our featured games, the spreads leveled out on Friday and didn't budge even as thousands of bets arrived in on Saturday and early Sunday. Take Washington/New York, for example:

Total Bets: 93,538
Match-up	Friday %	Final %	Opening	Friday	Final
WSH: 23	81%	81%	-3.5	-3.5	-3.5
NYJ: 20	19%	19%	+3.5	+3.5	+3.5

We knew coming in that big money was on New York. How? Well, bet distribution sided with the Redskins by a margin of 81/19 but Washington's price stayed the same -- a 3.5 favorite. One would expect the Skins' price to climb with such an uneven number of bets. However, the minority Jets and their 19 percent of bets managed to hold the line tight throughout the week. We know the results -- Skins win in overtime but didn't cover the spread. Big dogs, 0-1.

Green Bay's underdog status against the Chiefs was a head-scratcher. The oddsmakers must have been digging a little deeper than regular season records when pricing the Chiefs as a one-point favorite because we would've assumed the Packers had a clear advantage. On Friday, we figured the betting public must have thought like we did or at least could spot a bargain. They jumped on Green Bay's discounted price and tipped the scales 71/29, but by Sunday Chief investors and their dollars hit the market and kept the spread from running toward Green Bay.

Total Bets: 105,141
Match-up	Friday %	Final %	Opening	Friday	Final
GB: 33	71%	56%	+1	+1	+1
KC: 22	29%	44%	-1	-1	-1

Cincinnati/Buffalo was the market to watch. Priced as a one-point favorite at the opening of last week, Buffalo soon became a one-point underdog as the bulls rallied with the Bengals by a margin of 65/35. Supply and demand met at Cincy (-1) and that's where the price held by game time.

Total Bets: 70,464
Match-up	Friday %	Final %	Opening	Friday	Final
CIN: 21	65%	62%	+1	-1	-1
BUF: 33	35%	38%	-1	+1	+1

All in all, a surprisingly uneventful NFL market this past week, but we still have one left. We'll catch up on the point spread results from the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game tomorrow afternoon. Until then, give yourselves a headache and be sure to tune in to the post-Colts/Pats commentary, which will be in full supply for the next 48 hours.

In the Shadows

New England and Indy take the spotlight this week and with good reason. So far, the pregame hype has all the characteristics of a mid-January conference championship game -- plenty of player interviews (Was that Vinatieri getting air-time?) and endless commentary and speculation from networks. We understand the excitement that comes with a Brady vs. Manning duel, but there are other games going down this weekend. Some of them are already off to interesting starts in the point spread market. Here's what's happenin' as of Thursday night:

In the Washington/NY Jets game, the bet distribution tilts toward the Redskins side by 81 percent. However, the minority Jets are holding the line tight at 3.5. The big dogs lay in the Meadowlands this Sunday, even as the Jets roll out Kellen Clemens for his first start of the year. Perhaps the Redskins' embarrassing loss to the Pats last week will carry over to this week. The reasons for siding with the Jets are few and far between, but it's not our money. Do what you will, boys.

Bengals/Bills is our game to watch. Looking at this week's movement, it's clear Vegas erred slightly in pricing this one. Opening the week, Vegas pinned Buffalo as a -1 favorite, and gamblers jumped on the Bengal discount. With 10,000 total bets in, the Bengals tip the scale 65/35 and have shifted from the underdog to a 1-point favorite. Cincy's defense is suspect, and Buffalo's isn't. JP Losman's return to starting QB may have some shifting to the Cats, but the Bengals under-performance this season makes this a fairly even match-up. Parlay, anyone?

Next up is Green Bay at Kansas City, who is currently a 1 point favorite. The betting public doesn't think so. They've stacked Packer camp by 71 percent, and by Sunday morning Green Bay's market price could swing them into "favorite" status. Ya' think Favre's Monday night spectacular has gamblers bullish on Green Bay?

With Baltimore at Pittsburgh, it isn't a matter of one side holding the line; it's more about the Steelers' 48 percent bet distribution pushing the line from its opening of 7.5 to its current price of 9.5. A 52/48 draw wouldn't otherwise be a focus of ours, but the Steelers betting activity and the assumed amount of these bets are reasons to note this match-up.

Lastly, it wouldn't be right to not mention Colts/Pats, which is seeing the most action with nearly 30,000 bets. Nothing crazy happening here. Some 69 percent are with the Pats, and their opening line of -4 has moved to -5. The point spreads are moving as one would expect. We should point out the over/under, which is an astounding 57. Let's hope the game itself exceeds everyone's high, mid-week expectations. As for us, we want to see Belichick sweat a little.

We'll see you on Monday with the results. Enjoy the games.

Crashing the Poll Party

We've lost touch with the college game for two months, and we're due for a catch-up. Last time we devoted a day to the college football ranks, we pointed out the numerous misconceptions from the week-4 AP poll compared to preseason projections. Well, since then, it's much of the same. In fact, it got worse for the preseason forecasters as exactly 11 teams who were left out of the top-25 party in August are now college football's equivalent to Jeremy and John.

AP Poll as of Oct. 31
Team	Record	Change	BC Champ Odds
1. Ohio State	9-0	+10	5/2
2. Boston College	8-0	NR	15/1
3. LSU	7-1	-1	3/1
4. Oregon	7-1	NR	10/1
5. Oklahoma	7-1	+3	4/1
6. Arizona State	8-0	NR	18/1
7. West Virginia	7-1	-4	12/1
8. Kansas	8-0	NR	25/1
9. Missouri	7-1	NR	300/1
10. Georgia	6-2	+3	1000/1
11. Virginia Tech	6-2	-2	25/1
12. Hawaii	8-0	+11	75/1
13. USC	6-2	-12	6/1
14. Texas	7-2	-10	300/1
15. Michigan	7-2	-10	100/1
16. Connecticut	7-1	NR	25/1
17. Alabama	6-2	NR	1000/1
18. Florida	5-3	-12	50/1
19. Auburn	6-3	-1	300/1
20. South Florida	6-2	NR	20/1
21. Wake Forest	6-2	NR	5000/1
22. Boise State	7-1	+2	5000/1
23. South Carolina	6-3	NR	15/1
24. Tennessee	5-3	-9	300/1
25. Clemson	6-2	NR	1000/1
"NR" -- unranked in preseason poll

For fun, we threw in Sportsbook's live odds for each team to win the BCS Championship. Look at some of these deals -- No. 2 BC at 15/1? No. 9 Mizzou at 300/1? No. 10 Georgia at 1000/1?! Apparently, we need to free up some dollars in our BCS Portfolio, which, by the way, looks pretty good except for our sleeper -- Georgia Tech, who left the party weeks ago and ate our 13 bucks. But with a schedule that favorable, a Yellow Jacket investment was worth the risk back in late August.

Look who decided to join us -- Michigan. What seemed like a Wolverine season finished after game 2 has miraculously become interesting again with all the top-25 shuffling. The same can be said for teams like Tennessee and Auburn, who both dropped out of the top 25 in the first few weeks of the season only to reemerge again. Evidently, those with money to bet aren't buying it as all three teams have triple-digit odds. What do you think -- buys or sells?

Blood on the Rocks

Seeing as though our Beckett posts provided us with some insight to ponder, we'll give it another go- around for game 2. Boston sends out the cornerstone from the '04 championship team -- Curt Schilling -- and Colorado goes with the young arm with a funny first name -- Ubaldo Jiminez.

We saw the difference in play between the two teams in last night's game. Clearly, Boston was in control. But instead of simply writing the Rockies off and declaring the Sox as 2007 champs, we'll give Colorado a break and blame their loss on a slow start. Others aren't as nice. Take the current money lines, for example. Currently, a Boston win tonight with Schilling on the hill is priced at -197. Again we're seeing some shocking price tags on Boston pitchers, and yes, we realize that so far we've discussed No. 1 and No. 2 starters. However, tonight's game 2 is one of Schilling's most expensive starts this season. Our question is: Where is the respect for Colorado?

Pricey Curt Schilling Starts from the 2007 Season
Date	Team	Opposing Pitcher	ML
25-Sep	OAK	C. Gaudin	-220
13-Jun	COL	J. Fogg	-250
17-May	DET	C. Durbin	-185
12-May	BAL	S. Trachsel	-220

Schilling's current price of -197 could be best compared with his match-up against Chad Durbin and the Detroit Tigers. We'll let you decide if the Tigers and Rockies are similar teams.

On the other side, Jiminez walks into Fenway as the obvious underdog with a price of +184. For kicks, here are the cheapest starts for Jiminez during his shortened 2007 season:

Cheapest Ubaldo Jimenez Starts from the 2007 Season
Date	Team	Opposing Pitcher	ML
15-Aug	@ SD	C. Young	+175
4-Aug	@ ATL	T. Hudson	+190
24-Jul	SD	C. Young	+130

We can only assume that as we get deeper into the series and starting rotations we should see the money lines creep downward. But, man, so far these prices around -200 have us believing that the majority of gamblers are forecasting a clean sweep.

Dice-K will likely be the wildcard -- a rookie with no playoff experience who had a fair year. Think we'll get a realistic price? 

We'll get to that later. For now, let's enjoy our last few days of the baseball season.

Lou

The Price is Right?

Well, that was a clear mismatch. After yesterday's post on the near absurd price for Josh Beckett, we   figured the entire gambling community had been another casualty of the hype machine. This, of course, was before Beckett shut down the Rockies, giving up just 6 hits, an earned run and striking out 9. We can't imagine what the money line will look like in his next outing -- -250? -260? That kind of price for a Beckett start would actually be more expensive than a showdown with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Nevertheless, we won't get ahead of ourselves.

Here are the results from the game 1 money lines, courtesy of SportsInsights:

World Series Game 1 Money Line Results
Team	Pitcher	# Bets	Bet Tilt	Opening	Final
COL	J. Francis	35,013	47%	+180	+214
BOS	J. Beckett		53%	-180	-214

At the time of yesterday's post, the money line for a Boston win was at an astounding -220. By game time, some Rockie investors did come out of hiding and get into the action but barely tipped the balance. This much was clear: Gamblers identified Boston as the overwhelming favorite and, in turn, furthered the notion that money, in fact, does talk.

My apologizes for an error in yesterday's post in which I incorrectly stated the money line tilt at 91/9. My rookie eyes were instead reading the point spread distribution. Actually, the money line tilt for last night's opener was a less-shocking 53/47 on the Boston side. Again, my mistake.

Lou